2012 US Presidential Candidates

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2012 US Presidential Candidates

2012 Democratic Convention Benediction Prayer Cardinal Timothy Dolan

Vote for 2012 President of the United States – Vote by Watching and Commenting on the Video

W. Mitt Romney
Barack H. Obama

President Barack H Obama Approval Rating
49% (May 30, 2012 -> Rasmussen)

President Barack H Obama Disapproval Rating
49% (May 30, 2012 -> Rasmussen)


Republicans

Mitt Romney (Former Governor of Massachusetts) – www.mittromney.com


Democrats

Barack Obama (President of the United States) – www.barackobama.com


New Hampshire Primary 2012 Results

97% Reporting

Mitt Romney – 39% – 96,170
Ron Paul – 23% – 55,903
Jon Huntsman – 17% – 41,194
Newt Gingrich – 9% – 23,070
Rick Santorum – 9% – 22,914
Rick Perry – 1% – 1,728
Michele Bachmann – 0% – 347

Iowa Caucuses 2012 Results

Mitt Romney – 30,015 – 24.6%
Rick Santorum – 30,007 – 24.5%
Ron Paul – 26,219 – 21.4%
Newt Gingrich – 16,251 – 13.3%
Rick Perry – 12,604 – 10.3%
Michele Bachmann – 6,073 – 5%
Jon Huntsman – 745 – 0.6%
Herman Cain – 58 – 0%
Buddy Roemer – 31 – 0%
No Preference – 135 – 0.1%
Other – 117 – 0.1%

Iowa Caucuses v. New Hampshire Primary v. South Carolina Primary as Predictors (Non-Incumbent)

Iowa Caucuses: 6 of 12 (50%)
New Hampshire Primary: 7 of 12 (58%)
South Carolina Primary: 8 of 10 (80%)

The Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primaries have a 50% – 58% accuracy rate. The results are important, but they cannot be used to determine who the next party candidate would be. The South Carolina Primary, especially for the Republican Party, has a much higher accuracy rate at 80% (100% for the Republican Party).

Iowa Caucuses

Democratic Winners

Year – Won Caucus – Won Party Nomination
* No Incumbent

*1976 – “Uncommitted” – Jimmy Carter
1980 – Jimmy Carter – Jimmy Carter
*1984 – Walter Mondale – Walter Mondale
*1988 – Dick Gephart – Michael Dukakis
*1992 – Tom Harkin – Bill Clinton
1996 – Bill Clinton – Bill Clinton
*2000 – Al Gore – Al Gore
*2004 – John Kerry – John Kerry
*2008 – Barack Obama – Barack Obama

Republication Winners
* No Incumbent

Year – Won Caucus – Won Party Nomination

1976 – Gerald Ford – Gerald Ford
*1980 – George H.W. Bush – Ronald Reagan
1984 – Ronald Reagan – Ronald Reagan
*1988 – Bob Dole – George H.W. Bush
1992 – George H.W. Bush – George H.W. Bush
*1996 – Bob Dole – Bob Dole
*2000 – George W. Bush – George W. Bush
2004 – George W. Bush – George W. Bush
*2008 – Mike Huckabee – John McCain

New Hampshire Primary

Democratic Winners
* No Incumbent

Year – Won Primary – Won Party Nomination

*1976 – Jimmy Carter – Jimmy Carter
1980 – Jimmy Carter – Jimmy Carter
*1984 – Gary Hart – Walter Mondale
*1988 – Michael Dukakis – Michael Dukakis
*1992 – Paul Tsongas – Bill Clinton
1996 – Bill Clinton – Bill Clinton
*2000 – Al Gore – Al Gore
*2004 – John Kerry – John Kerry
*2008 – Hillary Clinton – Barack Obama

Republican Winners
* No Incumbent

Year – Won Primary – Won Party Nomination

1976 – Gerald Ford – Gerald Ford
*1980 – Ronald Reagan – Ronald Reagan
1984 – Ronald Reagan – Ronald Reagan
*1988 – George H.W. Bush – George H.W. Bush
1992 – George H.W. Bush – George H.W. Bush
*1996 – Pat Buchanan – Bob Dole
*2000 – John McCain – George W. Bush
2004 – George W. Bush – George W. Bush
*2008 – John McCain – John McCain

South Carolina Primary

Democratic Winners
* No Incumbent

Year – Won Primary – Won Party Nomination

*1988 – Jesse Jackson – Michael Dukakis
*1992 – Bill Clinton – Bill Clinton
1996 – Bill Clinton – Bill Clinton
*2000 – Al Gore – Al Gore
*2004 – John Edwards – John Kerry
*2008 – Barack Obama – Barack Obama

Republican Winners
* No Incumbent

Year – Won Primary – Won Party Nomination

*1980 – Ronald Reagan – Ronald Reagan
1984 – Ronald Reagan – Ronald Reagan
*1988 – George H.W. Bush – George H.W. Bush
1992 – George H.W. Bush – George H.W. Bush
*1996 – Bob Dole – Bob Dole
*2000 – George W. Bush – George W. Bush
2004 – George W. Bush – George W. Bush
*2008 – John McCain – John McCain

Primary and Caucus Dates

January 3, 2012 – Iowa
January 10, 2012 – New Hampshire
January 21, 2012 – South Carolina
January 31, 2012 – Florida
February 4, 2012 – Nevada
February 4–11, 2012 – Maine
February 7, 2012 – Colorado
February 7, 2012 – Minnesota
February 28, 2012 – Arizona
February 28, 2012 – Michigan
March 3, 2012 – Washington
March 6, 2012 – Alaska
March 6, 2012 – Georgia
March 6, 2012 – Idaho
March 6, 2012 – Massachusetts
March 6, 2012 – North Dakota
March 6, 2012 – Oklahoma
March 6, 2012 – Tennessee
March 6, 2012 – Texas
March 6, 2012 – Vermont
March 6, 2012 – Virginia
March 6–10, 2012 – Wyoming
March 10, 2012 – Kansas
March 10, 2012 – U.S. Virgin Islands
March 13, 2012 – Alabama
March 13, 2012 – Hawaii
March 13, 2012 – Mississippi
March 17, 2012 – Missouri
March 20, 2012 – Illinois
March 24, 2012 – Louisiana
April 3, 2012 – Maryland
April 3, 2012 – Washington, D.C.
April 3, 2012 – Wisconsin
April 24, 2012 – Connecticut
April 24, 2012 – Delaware
April 24, 2012 – New York
April 24, 2012 – Pennsylvania
April 24, 2012 – Rhode Island
May 8, 2012 – Indiana
May 8, 2012 – North Carolina
May 8, 2012 – West Virginia
May 15, 2012 – Nebraska
May 15, 2012 – Oregon
May 22, 2012 – Arkansas
May 22, 2012 – Kentucky
June 5, 2012 – California
June 5, 2012 – Montana
June 5, 2012 – New Jersey
June 5, 2012 – New Mexico
June 5, 2012 – South Dakota
June 12, 2012 – Ohio
June 26, 2012 – Utah
To be announced – American Samoa
To be announced – Guam
To be announced – Northern Mariana Islands
To be announced – Puerto Rico

Full Fox News / Google Presidential Debate – Florida September 22, 2011

CPAC Logo Conservative Political Action Committee

CPAC (Conservative Political Action Committee) Straw Poll History

1976 Ronald Reagan
1980 Ronald Reagan
1984 Ronald Reagan
1987 Jack Kemp
1995 Phil Gramm
2000 George W. Bush
2008 Mitt Romney
2011 Ron Paul

Although not completely accurate, it has been more historically accurate than the Ames Iowa Straw Poll. For the CPAC straw polls listed above, the eventual Republican Primary Winner was chosen 3 out of 7 times. That is an accuracy rating of 43%. That is a little better than the 40% accuracy of the Ames Iowa Straw Poll. However, it is not accurate enough to determine who will be the Republican Presidential Nominee.


Republican Presidential Debate Reagan Library 9-7-11

Republican Presidential Debate – September 7, 2011 – Ronald Reagan Presidential Library


Ames Iowa Straw Poll 2011 Results

Michele Bachmann (28.65%) – 4823 votes
Ron Paul (27.74%) – 4671 votes
Tim Pawlenty (13.62%) – 2293 votes
Rick Santorum (9.84%) – 1657 votes
Herman Cain (8.65%) – 1456 votes
Rick Perry (4.26%) – 567 votes
Mitt Romney (3.37%) – 567 votes
Newt Gingrich (2.29%) – 385 votes
Other (0.96%) – 162 votes
Jon Huntsman (0.41%) – 69 votes
Thad McCotter (0.21%) – 35 votes


Ames Iowa Straw Poll Accuracy

Winner of 1979 Ames Iowa Straw Poll = George H.W. Bush; 1980 Republican Candidate = Ronald Reagan

Winner of 1987 Ames Iowa Straw Poll = Pat Robertson; 1988 Republican Candidate = George H.W. Bush (who came in 3rd place out of 8 in straw poll)

Winner of 1995 Ames Iowa Straw Poll = Bob Dole & Phil Gramm (tie); 1996 Republican Candidate = Bob Dole (who tied for 1st place out of 10 in straw poll)

Winner of 1999 Ames Iowa Straw Poll = George W. Bush; 2000 Republican Candidate = George W. Bush (who came in 1st place out of 12 in straw poll)

Winner of 2007 Ames Iowa Straw Poll = Mitt Romney; 2008 Republican Candidate = John McCain (who came in 10th place out of 11 in straw poll)

Out of 5 polls, it accurately predicted 2 Republican Presidential candidates


Incumbent Job Approval Ratings and Presidential Re-Election

Incumbent Job Approval Rating Re-election

Job approval ratings of the incumbent President on election day does have much to do with his chances of getting re-elected. Historically, the President must have at least a 48% job approval rating in order to get re-elected.

In the chart above, the orange marks the years in which the incumbent President or Party lost. The green marks the years in which the incumbent President or Party won re-election.

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